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Monday, October 17, 2011

A Quick Update

Just a few words since it has been a while since my last update.

The strength of the recent rally caught me by surprise.  Generally speaking, the market knows a lot more than I do – so if the market is moving in the opposite of what I expect it usually means that I am wrong and that I need to reevaluate my thinking.

However, every time I considered buying into this most recent run-up I found myself thinking about the following:

  • Greece will likely default before the end of the year
  • Once Greece defaults, Portugal is next
  • Despite the recent upbeat news, we’re probably headed for a recession

Although it pains me to miss out on gains, I don’t believe that this is “priced in” and I can’t be a buyer here.

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