Just a few words since it has been a while since my last update.
The strength of the recent rally caught me by surprise. Generally speaking, the market knows a lot more than I do – so if the market is moving in the opposite of what I expect it usually means that I am wrong and that I need to reevaluate my thinking.
However, every time I considered buying into this most recent run-up I found myself thinking about the following:
- Greece will likely default before the end of the year
- Once Greece defaults, Portugal is next
- Despite the recent upbeat news, we’re probably headed for a recession
Although it pains me to miss out on gains, I don’t believe that this is “priced in” and I can’t be a buyer here.